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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessRand On Front Foot Ahead Of SARB MonPol Decision
Spot USD/ZAR has moved away from lows (ZAR17.0133) but remain under water, last dealing at ZAR17.0902, down ~200 pips on the day. From a technical viewpoint, further losses past Jan 12 low of ZAR16.6950 would encourage bears, while bulls look for a rebound towards Jan 6 high of ZAR17.4343. SARB rate decision takes the limelight after PPI data surprised to the downside, with USD/ZAR overnight implied volatility printing one-week highs ahead of the central bank announcement.
- From a cross-asset perspective, the composite BBG Commodity Index sits a tad lower on the day, while the precious metals subindex has reversed earlier gains to last trade ~0.4% worse off.
- The initial bull flattening impetus has moderated, with local-currency bond yields trimming initial losses, but they still sit below neutral levels. South Africa's 10-year breakeven inflation rate sits at 5.86% after lodging a new one-year low at 5.83%.
- Factory-gate inflation eased to +13.5% Y/Y last month from +15.0% prior versus +13.9% expected, with price growth flat on a monthly basis. The data will be taken as further evidence of moderating price pressures after a couple of downside suprises in recent CPI reports.
- The focus now shifts to SARB monetary policy decision, which will be announced during a press conference with Governor Kganyago at 15:00SAST/13:00GMT. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates further, while slowing the pace of tightening.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.