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ZAR: Rand Remains On Back Foot

ZAR
EM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

Another round of hawkish tariff talk from US President Trump has lent support to the greenback, pushing USD/ZAR higher this morning. The pair last deals at 18.8392, nearly 1,100 pips above neutral levels, with bulls targeting the 19.0 figure followed by Jan 13 high of 19.2296. Conversely, bears keep an eye on the 50-EMA, which intersects at 18.4581.

  • SAGB yields have faltered across the curve, with South Africa's 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates slipping to 4.35% and 5.47% respectively. The National Treasury will sell ZAR1.25bn each of 8.875% 2035 bonds, 8.750% 2044 bonds and 11.625% 2053 bonds.
  • The aggregate BBG Commodity Index has edged lower by 0.1%, with the precious metals subindex down 0.1%. Gold changes hands ~$5.5/oz. lower on the day.
  • Statistics SA is providing an update on the composition of its CPI basket and item weightings (see press release), which will be applied to the January 2025 release. The next inflation report is due February 19.
  • In the meantime, the SARB will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. Almost all analysts expect the central bank to deliver another 25bp cut to the repo rate.
  • South Africa's leading indicator ticked higher to 114.7 in November from 114.0 prior.
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Another round of hawkish tariff talk from US President Trump has lent support to the greenback, pushing USD/ZAR higher this morning. The pair last deals at 18.8392, nearly 1,100 pips above neutral levels, with bulls targeting the 19.0 figure followed by Jan 13 high of 19.2296. Conversely, bears keep an eye on the 50-EMA, which intersects at 18.4581.

  • SAGB yields have faltered across the curve, with South Africa's 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates slipping to 4.35% and 5.47% respectively. The National Treasury will sell ZAR1.25bn each of 8.875% 2035 bonds, 8.750% 2044 bonds and 11.625% 2053 bonds.
  • The aggregate BBG Commodity Index has edged lower by 0.1%, with the precious metals subindex down 0.1%. Gold changes hands ~$5.5/oz. lower on the day.
  • Statistics SA is providing an update on the composition of its CPI basket and item weightings (see press release), which will be applied to the January 2025 release. The next inflation report is due February 19.
  • In the meantime, the SARB will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. Almost all analysts expect the central bank to deliver another 25bp cut to the repo rate.
  • South Africa's leading indicator ticked higher to 114.7 in November from 114.0 prior.