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Rand Weakness Extends Into Friday

ZAR

The rand trades on a softer footing after Thursday's SARB monetary policy decision, with light headwinds for commodity-tied currencies seen today. The spot rate changes hands at ZAR17.0950, up ~740 pips on the session, with shorter-end implied volatilities consolidating their post-SARB drops.

  • South African gov't bond yields have edged higher this morning, extending their recovery from post-SARB lows. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has ticked away from three-month lows printed yesterday.
  • The synchronised JIBAR-FRA spread compression across 2023 and 2024 maturities extended sharply in the wake of the SARB monetary policy decision. The 3-2 split in a vote on 75bp versus 50bp rate hike saw some analysts speculate that the rate-hike cycle might be reaching its peak.
  • The aggregate BBG Commodity Index is 0.2% softer today, albeit the precious metals and industrial metals subindices are slightly firmer.
  • From a technical perspective, bulls look for a break above trendline support-turned-resistance at ZAR17.2996 before setting their sights on Nov 17 high of ZAR17.5553. On the flip side, a fall through Nov 24 low of ZAR16.9073 would expose Aug 25 low of ZAR16.7102.
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