Free Trial

Rand Weakness Extends Into Friday

ZAR

The rand trades on a softer footing after Thursday's SARB monetary policy decision, with light headwinds for commodity-tied currencies seen today. The spot rate changes hands at ZAR17.0950, up ~740 pips on the session, with shorter-end implied volatilities consolidating their post-SARB drops.

  • South African gov't bond yields have edged higher this morning, extending their recovery from post-SARB lows. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has ticked away from three-month lows printed yesterday.
  • The synchronised JIBAR-FRA spread compression across 2023 and 2024 maturities extended sharply in the wake of the SARB monetary policy decision. The 3-2 split in a vote on 75bp versus 50bp rate hike saw some analysts speculate that the rate-hike cycle might be reaching its peak.
  • The aggregate BBG Commodity Index is 0.2% softer today, albeit the precious metals and industrial metals subindices are slightly firmer.
  • From a technical perspective, bulls look for a break above trendline support-turned-resistance at ZAR17.2996 before setting their sights on Nov 17 high of ZAR17.5553. On the flip side, a fall through Nov 24 low of ZAR16.9073 would expose Aug 25 low of ZAR16.7102.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.