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AUSSIE: Rate edges back below the 50-dma at $0.7113 for the first time since
Apr10 as Antipodean FX remains close to the bottom of the G10 table. AUD slipped
alongside another negative performance for Chinese equity markets and a pullback
in metals prices, failing to benefit from any of the upside in crude oil over
the past 2 sessions. Focus this week remains on the CPI report due overnight
tonight, expected at 0.2% Q/Q and 1.5% Y/Y. The data release follows MNI
exclusive reports 2 weeks ago stating that only a "big CPI miss would prompt RBA
dovishness". Front-end AUD vols continue to edge higher, with the 1m measure
hitting the highest levels since late March early Tuesday. The contract now also
captures election risk due on May 18th.
Support may be found in AUD/USD on an approach into the early April lows of
$0.7088 and $0.7053. Bulls need to recover the 100-dma at $0.7129 to open the
200-dma and stage a bullish breakout north of $0.7185.