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Rate Path Nudges Higher With Bullard

STIR
  • Bullard (non-voter)’s comments, whilst reiterating a prior view of the need for two more rate hikes from April, have helped push FOMC-dated June OIS pricing another 1bp higher to 5.14% (i.e. +6bp hike).
  • It remains below the 8-9bp of hikes priced Friday prior to debt talk impasse headlines.
  • Other notable points: peak seen with +8.5bps for Jul (+3.5bp on the day), back to almost unchanged from current levels in Sept (-1bps at 5.07%, +4bps), less than one full cut from current with -19bps for Nov (+3.5bp) and -40bps for Dec (+5bp).
  • It follows a hawkish reaction to broadly reaffirming comments from Kashkari ('23 voter) earlier today (after weekend WSJ remarks ). Up next: Bostic, Barkin and Daly (all '24 voters) at 1105ET.


June FOMC OIS pricing firms further with Bullard after earlier post-Kashkari push higherSource: Bloomberg

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