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Rates and Stocks Back Near Mid-Range

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures trading mixed after the bell, near the middle of the session range, curves extending inversion with short end rates underperforming.
  • Front month Treasury 2Y futures tapped 102-18.38 low (-4.38) after a large 10.5k midday Block sale, with yield climbing to 4.5413% high. Sep 10Y futures tapped 113-18.5 (-10) low, above initial technical support of 113-10 (Monday low) before drifting back to 113-26 (-2.5) after the bell.
  • Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 112-29+, the May 26 / 30 low. A break would resume the downtrend since May 4.
  • Curves extending inversion but remain above early March low around -110 (multi-decade low not seen since early 1980s).
  • The early morning selloff was partially tied to swings in EGBs, while incoming corporate debt issuance is creating some rate lock sale pressure, surge in supply is expected to continue as issuers return following the passage of debt ceiling bill late last week.
  • Meanwhile, stocks have rebounded back to mildly higher levels, SPX (+9.5 at 4290.5) buoyed by bank shares recovering from Monday sell-off tied to talk of increasing capital requirements for banks by an average of 20%.
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