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Rates Are Likely To Rise Further, But The Increase Won’t Be Major (Rusnok)

CZECHIA
  • This morning, CNB Governor Rusnok mentioned in an interview that Czech rates are likely to rise further, but the increase will not be major.
  • With the FRA 6Mx9M trading at 86bps above the Pribor 3M, the market is currently pricing in a terminal rate between 5.75% and 6%.
  • Czech 2y yield broke above the 5% key resistance in the end of last week as inflation continues to surprise positively, currently trading above the high reached prior the Financial Crisis.
  • The chart shows that the 2Y change in the 2Y yield has strongly led the industrial production (Proxy for economic activity) by 6 months in the past 15 years.
  • The Czech Republic wants the European Union to stop Russian oil imports during its presidency of the bloc in the second half of 2022, Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said at press briefing yesterday (BBG).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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