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US TSY FLOWS: Rates bid but off midday highs, Tsy futures marched marched past
Tue's post-ISM highs to levels not seen since Sep 10, 10YY slipped to session
low of 1.5786, 30YY 2.0649%. Risk-off tone underscored by weak global equities,
S&Ps -63.0 early in second half, Gold climbs back over 1500.0 (+23.0), modest
unwinds in late trade. Little market react from Fed speakers Barkin, Harker and
Williams. WTO annc US can impose $7.5B tariffs re: Airbus dispute.
- Flow included swap-tied selling short end, prop and fast$ selling
intermediates,light prop and real$ sales long end last half hour as Tsys paring
first half gains some deal-tied selling in the mix.
- Short end grinds higher -- session highs as chances of two more rate cuts by
year end come back in focus: Oct 30 chances have see sawed around mid 90% to
100% for weeks, while chances for Dec cut back around 45%. Options trade has not
really woken up to take advantage of lead up/or current levels, many plying
sidelines ahead Fri's NFP.
- The 2-Yr yield is down 6.6bps at 1.48%, 5-Yr is down 6bps at 1.43%, 10-Yr is
down 4bps at 1.5957%, and 30-Yr is down 0.7bps at 2.0856%.