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Rates Discount Thursday's Data, Finish Week Near Highs

US TSYS
  • Treasuries look to finish higher Friday, trading sideways after marking session highs around midmorning. No particular headline driver, rates see broad based support around midday following a large buy of 35,000 SFRM4 (3M Jun'24 SOFR futures) noted at 94.905 (+0.015) at around 1112ET, trades 94.915 last.
  • After the bell, Jun'24 10Y futures trade +11.5 at 110-24 vs. 110-26.5 high. Key short-term resistance to watch is 111-00+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery.
  • Underlying futures discounted yesterday's flash PMI inflation build, trading back near highs for the week while projected rate cut pricing gained ground: May 2024 at -16.5 vs. -14.5% this morning w/ cumulative -4.1bp at 5.286%; June 2024 -69.3% vs. -64.1% earlier w/ cumulative rate cut -21.5bp at 5.113%. July'24 cumulative at -33.5bp vs. -31.5bp.
  • Monday Data Calendar: Fed Speak, New Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg. Trading floors and Globex are closed next Friday for Good Friday/Easter holiday.

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