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Rates Extended Lows After Weak 10Y Tsy Sale, 3Bp Tail

US TSYS
  • Treasuries look broadly weaker after the bell, firmly below last Friday's pre-NFP levels. The Sep'24 10Y contract trades 112-29 (-15.5) after the bell, with initial technical support at 112-21 (Aug 2 low). Still inverted, Tsy curves bear steepened in the second half, 2s10s +4.412 at -4.317
  • Treasury futures gapped lower after the $42B 10Y auction (91282CLF6) tails 3bp: 3.960% high yield vs. 3.930% WI; 2.32x bid-to-cover is lowest since Dec'22 vs. 2.58x prior last month.
  • Early session calm saw a backlog of corporate debt issuance with $30B in high grade supply contributing to the second half sell-off.
  • Second tier data saw MBA composite mortgage applications jump to a seasonally adjusted 6.9% last week to fully reverse the prior two weekly declines.
  • Manheim used car prices increased a seasonally adjusted 2.8% M/M in July (revised up from the 1.8% indicated in the fifteen-day update), the first increase since Sep’23. It follows two consecutive -0.6% M/M declines in May/June and the heavier -2.3% in April.
  • Look ahead to Thursday: Weekly Claims, Wholesale Data and 30Y Bond Sale. Richmond Fed President Barkin will attend a NABE Webinar, moderated Q&A at 1500ET.

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