March 14, 2025 19:29 GMT
US TSYS: Rates Near Lows, Stocks Bounce Ahead Senate Budget Vote
US TSYS
- Treasuries look to finish near session lows amid cautious rise in risk sentiment as markets awaited Senate vote on GOP spending bill "H.R. 1968" to keep government open through September.
- Sentiment measured by UofM another matter altogether: notably lower than expected as it slid to 57.9 (cons 63.0) in the preliminary March release after 64.7 in February, for the lowest since Nov 2022. It came with a sharp climb in inflation expectations, with the 1Y surprisingly jumping to 4.9% (cons 4.3) after 4.3 and the 5-10Y jumping to 3.9% (cons 3.4) after 3.5% for a thirty-two year high.
- Jun'25 Tsy 10Y futures trade -11 at 110-19, above initial technical support at 110-12.5/110-00 (Low Mar 6 / High Feb 7). Tsy 10Y yield 4.3121% last, curves flattening late: 2s10s -1.813 at 28.876, 5s30s -3.010 at 52.774.
- Stocks bounced off yesterday's six-month lows after NY Senator Schumer (D) said he would not block the GOP spending bill in order to avoid an imminent government shutdown.
- Strong rally for the Euro, as headlines suggested Germany have found a solution to the debt brake passage. EURUSD rose from around 1.0850 to 1.0912 following the news, falling short of most recent cycle highs which reside at 1.0947.
- Fed remains in Blackout until after next Wednesday's FOMC policy annc. Monday data focus on Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing and NAHB Housing Market Index measures.
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