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Rates Off Lows, Fed in Blackout, Earning Cycle Accelerates

US TSYS
  • Mildly weaker after the bell, Treasury futures are see-sawing near the top end of the session range, curves steeper with the short end outperforming. Rebound partially tied to Middle East risk not gaining.
  • Currently, Jun'24 10Y futures are trading 107-28 (-1), well below initial technical resistance of 108-22.5 (High Apr 19). The 2s10s curve is currently +1.479 at -35.458.
  • No data or Fed speakers on the week open, the latter in Blackout through May 2.
  • Corporate issuance rather muted as the latest earnings cycle gathers steam, though American Express issued $3.5B debt over 4 tranches that generated some rate lock hedging in the short end.
  • Corporate earnings: Verizon and Albertsons announced ahead of the open, Nucor, Alexandria Real Estate, Globe Life after the close. Expected Tuesday: Pepsico, UPS, GM, Halliburton, Philip Morris, Pulte, Freeport McMoRan, Lockheed Martin, JetBlue, GE, Kimberly-Clark, Sherwin-Williams, Baker Hughes, Tesla, Texas Instruments, Visa, Enphase, Seagate.
  • Projected rate cut pricing running steady to mildly lower vs. late Friday lvls: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -0.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -16.2% w/ cumulative rate cut -4.7bp at 5.282%. July'24 cumulative at 11.6bp, Sep'24 cumulative -22.3bp.
  • Look ahead: economic data picks up Tuesday with regional manufacturing data from Philly and Richmond Fed, S&P PMIs and New Home Sales.
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