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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessRates Treading Water, Focus on Friday Jobs Data
- Treasury futures staying close to home overnight, levels marginally mixed, inside narrow range. Rather decent overnight volumes (TYU3>330k) despite London out on bank holiday today, elevated volumes due to Sep'23 option expiring and Sep/Dec rolls ahead Thursday's "First Notice" date where Dec'23 takes lead quarterly.
- Curves flatter with bonds trading firmer: 3M10Y -2.588 at -129.455, 2Y10Y -2.141 at -86.626. Sep'23 10Y currently -1 at 109-12, yield 4.2315% -.0039.
- Initial technical support for the Sep'23 10Y contract is 108-28/26+ Low Aug 22 / Low Oct 21 2022 (cont). On the flipside, Firm resistance is 110-08+, the 20-day EMA. Gains are considered corrective.
- Economic data limited to Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (-20.0, -19) at 1030ET, focus on the latest employment data for August this Friday.
- Scheduled Fed speak: Fed VC Barr on banking services, no text, Q&A at 1230ET.
- STIR Update: Secured Overnight Financing Rate 3M futures are moving lower in the minutes after SOFR 3M rate settled +0.01355 to 5.41744 (+0.02072 total last wk).
- Rate hike projections through year end are gaining: Sep 20 FOMC is 22.8% w/ implied rate change of +5.7bp to 5.386%. November cumulative of +16.8bp at 5.496, December cumulative of 16.4bp at 5.493%. Fed terminal climbs to 5.50% in Nov'23.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.