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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
RBA-dated OIS pricing has experienced a 2-9 bps softening across meetings today, building on the downward trend observed after the recent RBA decision. As of the present moment, the softening from pre-RBA levels has aggregated to 6-15 bps across various meetings.
- With only around a 10% probability assigned to a 25bp hike occurring yesterday, the recent adjustment in pricing can be ascribed to the RBA statement lacking any hawkish undertones.
- Simultaneously, there has been a 5 bps reduction in terminal rate expectations today, settling at 4.37%. This revision aligns with the broader softening observed across the $-bloc in response to yesterday's disappointing US JOLTs job openings data.
- Looking ahead, the US economic calendar today features the ADP private payrolls report, with Non-Farm Payrolls scheduled for Friday.
- The current movement adds to the persistent decline in the anticipated terminal rate, marking a 14 bps decrease since the release of October's CPI Monthly data, which fell below expectations last week.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Pre-RBA Vs. Post-RBA
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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