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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
The RBA is set to announce its policy decision tomorrow with AU STIR currently attaching an 85% chance that the bank will deliver a no-change outcome for the first time since April 2022.
- In the RBA's March Meeting Minutes, the board agreed to reconsider the possibility of a policy pause in April, with a focus on releases of employment, inflation, retail trade, and business surveys. The board also highlighted the importance of global economic developments in their considerations.
- By flagging the possibility of an April policy pause in March, the RBA signalled a potential preference for that outcome, putting the burden of proof on the data to suggest otherwise. Given soft retail sales and a decelerating annual inflation rate (CPI monthly), it seems unlikely that the data will provide a compelling argument against a pause.
- Furthermore, the RBA's March Meeting took place before the recent escalation in global banking concerns. As a result, the board is likely to lower its outlook for global growth, adding another pause-supportive factor to its decision-making process.
Figure 1: RBA Dated OIS: Today Vs. Friday
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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