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STIR: RBA Dated OIS Now Firmer Than Pre-CPI

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2–15bps firmer across meetings today, led by late 2025 and early 2026 contracts. Current pricing is now flat to 9bps firmer compared to pre-CPI levels from last Wednesday. 

  • For context, OIS pricing had softened by as much as 5bps below pre-CPI levels for certain meetings following the data release.
  • A 25bp rate cut is still more than fully priced for April (109%), with a 69% probability of a February cut (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Prior to last week’s CPI data, the likelihood of a 25bp cut in April had eased to 108% (27bps), while the February cut probability was at 65%. 

 

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RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2–15bps firmer across meetings today, led by late 2025 and early 2026 contracts. Current pricing is now flat to 9bps firmer compared to pre-CPI levels from last Wednesday. 

  • For context, OIS pricing had softened by as much as 5bps below pre-CPI levels for certain meetings following the data release.
  • A 25bp rate cut is still more than fully priced for April (109%), with a 69% probability of a February cut (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Prior to last week’s CPI data, the likelihood of a 25bp cut in April had eased to 108% (27bps), while the February cut probability was at 65%. 

 

Keep reading...Show less