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RBA Dated OIS Pricing 37bp Of Easing By Year-End

STIR
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Guided by the global banking crisis narrative rather than local data strength, AU STIR closed last week with the market not just pricing an April meeting policy pause by the RBA, but an end to the tightening cycle with around 15bp easing by year-end.

  • The market has added to last week’s move today with RBA-dated OIS pricing 23-29bp softer for meetings beyond May with a cumulative 37bp of easing priced by year-end.
  • Comments from RBA Assistant Governor Kent today appeared to give pricing a boost. First, when he stated that “…it’s likely to take longer than usual to see the full effect of higher interest rates…” and secondly when he noted that the RBA will consider (among other issues) the banking crisis at the April meeting.

Figure 1: RBA Dated OIS: Today Vs. Friday

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Guided by the global banking crisis narrative rather than local data strength, AU STIR closed last week with the market not just pricing an April meeting policy pause by the RBA, but an end to the tightening cycle with around 15bp easing by year-end.

  • The market has added to last week’s move today with RBA-dated OIS pricing 23-29bp softer for meetings beyond May with a cumulative 37bp of easing priced by year-end.
  • Comments from RBA Assistant Governor Kent today appeared to give pricing a boost. First, when he stated that “…it’s likely to take longer than usual to see the full effect of higher interest rates…” and secondly when he noted that the RBA will consider (among other issues) the banking crisis at the April meeting.

Figure 1: RBA Dated OIS: Today Vs. Friday

Keep reading...Show less