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RBA Dated OIS Still Pricing No Hikes After Jobs Data

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Today’s strong employment data (+64.6k & an unemployment rate of 3.5% Vs. +50k and 3.6% expected) along with robust business conditions reported in the NAB Business Survey on Tuesday should support a 25bp rate hike from the RBA in April. RBA Governor Lowe had explicitly cited these releases as important inputs to next month’s cash rate decision. Of course, global market gyrations and growing concerns about an emerging global banking crisis are complicating the story.

  • Heading in the employment data, RBA dated OIS had softened 14-33bp for meetings beyond May in sympathy with global STIR and had once again (the first time was on Tuesday) signalled a halt to the tightening cycle.
  • At the time of writing, little had changed with pricing 3-6bp firmer for meetings beyond June.
  • April meeting pricing remains at -3bp with 33bp of easing priced by year-end.

Figure 1: RBA Dated OIS: Pre-Data Vs. Post-Data

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Today’s strong employment data (+64.6k & an unemployment rate of 3.5% Vs. +50k and 3.6% expected) along with robust business conditions reported in the NAB Business Survey on Tuesday should support a 25bp rate hike from the RBA in April. RBA Governor Lowe had explicitly cited these releases as important inputs to next month’s cash rate decision. Of course, global market gyrations and growing concerns about an emerging global banking crisis are complicating the story.

  • Heading in the employment data, RBA dated OIS had softened 14-33bp for meetings beyond May in sympathy with global STIR and had once again (the first time was on Tuesday) signalled a halt to the tightening cycle.
  • At the time of writing, little had changed with pricing 3-6bp firmer for meetings beyond June.
  • April meeting pricing remains at -3bp with 33bp of easing priced by year-end.

Figure 1: RBA Dated OIS: Pre-Data Vs. Post-Data

Keep reading...Show less