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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessRBA Dated OIS Still Pricing No Hikes After Jobs Data
Today’s strong employment data (+64.6k & an unemployment rate of 3.5% Vs. +50k and 3.6% expected) along with robust business conditions reported in the NAB Business Survey on Tuesday should support a 25bp rate hike from the RBA in April. RBA Governor Lowe had explicitly cited these releases as important inputs to next month’s cash rate decision. Of course, global market gyrations and growing concerns about an emerging global banking crisis are complicating the story.
- Heading in the employment data, RBA dated OIS had softened 14-33bp for meetings beyond May in sympathy with global STIR and had once again (the first time was on Tuesday) signalled a halt to the tightening cycle.
- At the time of writing, little had changed with pricing 3-6bp firmer for meetings beyond June.
- April meeting pricing remains at -3bp with 33bp of easing priced by year-end.
Figure 1: RBA Dated OIS: Pre-Data Vs. Post-Data
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Figure 2: RBA Dated OIS: Pre-Data Vs. Post-Data
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.