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The Aussie bond futures curve bull flattened overnight, even as the U.S. Tsy curve twist steepened, with some desks once again flagging cross-market demand for XM vs. their U.S. counterpart. Very light two-way flows have been seen at the Sydney re-open leaving YM -0.5 & XM+2.5.
- Note that the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan poll has the opposition Labor Party beating out the ruling coalition in the upcoming Federal election (in line with wider polling), with projections of 53%-47% vote split on a two-party preferred basis (that represents a 3ppt narrowing of the gap vs. the previous poll).
- The RBA meeting minutes headline the domestic docket on Tuesday, and while markets will be keen to receive further guidance re: the cash rate trajectory, it is unlikely that the RBA will be forthcoming with such information. Governor Lowe has pointed to ~2.50% as a potential staging post when it comes to the terminal rate of the current cycle, although these comments were made in a roundabout way, and were by no means firm guidance. Language surrounding wage dynamics will also be scrutinised, but the release of the SoMP and Lowe’s post-meeting press conference may provide limited headroom when it comes to space for the dissemination of meaningful, fresh information. Elsewhere, the latest weekly batch of ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence data is due.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.