RBA Minutes Due

The Aussie bond futures curve bull flattened overnight, even as the U.S. Tsy curve twist steepened, with some desks once again flagging cross-market demand for XM vs. their U.S. counterpart. Very light two-way flows have been seen at the Sydney re-open leaving YM -0.5 & XM+2.5.

• Note that the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan poll has the opposition Labor Party beating out the ruling coalition in the upcoming Federal election (in line with wider polling), with projections of 53%-47% vote split on a two-party preferred basis (that represents a 3ppt narrowing of the gap vs. the previous poll).
• The RBA meeting minutes headline the domestic docket on Tuesday, and while markets will be keen to receive further guidance re: the cash rate trajectory, it is unlikely that the RBA will be forthcoming with such information. Governor Lowe has pointed to ~2.50% as a potential staging post when it comes to the terminal rate of the current cycle, although these comments were made in a roundabout way, and were by no means firm guidance. Language surrounding wage dynamics will also be scrutinised, but the release of the SoMP and Lowe’s post-meeting press conference may provide limited headroom when it comes to space for the dissemination of meaningful, fresh information. Elsewhere, the latest weekly batch of ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence data is due.