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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(U2) More Stable But Still Fragile

USDCAD TECHS

Trend Structure Remains Bullish

US TSYS

Cautious Risk Appetite Gains Momentum

AUDUSD TECHS

Key Support Still Exposed

US STOCKS

Late Equity Roundup: 2W Highs

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RBA Minutes Due

AUSSIE BONDS

The Aussie bond futures curve bull flattened overnight, even as the U.S. Tsy curve twist steepened, with some desks once again flagging cross-market demand for XM vs. their U.S. counterpart. Very light two-way flows have been seen at the Sydney re-open leaving YM -0.5 & XM+2.5.

  • Note that the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan poll has the opposition Labor Party beating out the ruling coalition in the upcoming Federal election (in line with wider polling), with projections of 53%-47% vote split on a two-party preferred basis (that represents a 3ppt narrowing of the gap vs. the previous poll).
  • The RBA meeting minutes headline the domestic docket on Tuesday, and while markets will be keen to receive further guidance re: the cash rate trajectory, it is unlikely that the RBA will be forthcoming with such information. Governor Lowe has pointed to ~2.50% as a potential staging post when it comes to the terminal rate of the current cycle, although these comments were made in a roundabout way, and were by no means firm guidance. Language surrounding wage dynamics will also be scrutinised, but the release of the SoMP and Lowe’s post-meeting press conference may provide limited headroom when it comes to space for the dissemination of meaningful, fresh information. Elsewhere, the latest weekly batch of ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence data is due.
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The Aussie bond futures curve bull flattened overnight, even as the U.S. Tsy curve twist steepened, with some desks once again flagging cross-market demand for XM vs. their U.S. counterpart. Very light two-way flows have been seen at the Sydney re-open leaving YM -0.5 & XM+2.5.

  • Note that the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan poll has the opposition Labor Party beating out the ruling coalition in the upcoming Federal election (in line with wider polling), with projections of 53%-47% vote split on a two-party preferred basis (that represents a 3ppt narrowing of the gap vs. the previous poll).
  • The RBA meeting minutes headline the domestic docket on Tuesday, and while markets will be keen to receive further guidance re: the cash rate trajectory, it is unlikely that the RBA will be forthcoming with such information. Governor Lowe has pointed to ~2.50% as a potential staging post when it comes to the terminal rate of the current cycle, although these comments were made in a roundabout way, and were by no means firm guidance. Language surrounding wage dynamics will also be scrutinised, but the release of the SoMP and Lowe’s post-meeting press conference may provide limited headroom when it comes to space for the dissemination of meaningful, fresh information. Elsewhere, the latest weekly batch of ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence data is due.