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RBA Minutes In Focus


AUD/USD finished the day slightly lower but recovered from worst levels. The pair last trading up 4 pips at 0.7769 after dropping as low as 0.7731 at the start of US trade on Monday.

  • China has held talks with other members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership, a group originated to exclude China and cement the US's position in the region. China recently ended all activity under the economic dialogue with Australia. In other trade news the UK is said to be divided over tariff free access to UK markets for Australian farmers according to the FT.
  • From a technical perspective AUD/USD traded to a low of 0.7688 last week on May 13, denting the recent bullish outlook further. A firm support zone has been defined at 0.7688-75, the latter is the May 4 low. Clearance of this zone would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7586, the Apr 13 low. Initial firm resistance is at 0.7846, May 12 high ahead of the key resistance at 0.7891, May 10 high.
  • The main event today is the release of the RBA minutes at 0230BST/1130AEST, though CBA does not expect it to be a market mover: "The minutes from the RBA's May Board meeting will be a non‑event in our view. The RBA has already flagged that its decision on yield curve control and future bond purchases will be announced at the 6 July Board meeting." ANZ weekly consumer confidence is also on the docket at 0030BST/0930AEST.

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