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RBC Card Data Implies Stronger Consumption Than Retail Sales Might Suggest

CANADA
  • RBC see Wednesday’s retail sales data as likely to be “scrutinized for signs of continued excess demand in the economy—particularly after a surprisingly firm increase in Canadian CPI in July”.
  • Retail sales have softened in Q2, with volumes down almost 2% at an annualized rate over April and May compared to the Q1 average, and with the advance estimate for June little changed.
  • “Our own RBC cardholder data suggests consumer spending has been somewhat stronger than that, with purchases of discretionary services (not counted in the monthly retail sales data) particularly firm.”

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