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RBC: Jobs Shouldn't Change BOC Outlook

CANADA
  • RBC note the Omicron variant made a “larger-than-expected dent in Canadian labour markets in January” but it’s still expected to be temporary.
  • “The 200k employment drop was (once again) concentrated among high-contact service-sector jobs, and in Quebec and Ontario where more businesses were mandated closed”.
  • However, hours worked by those still employed plunged 2.2%, the largest since April last year.
  • Today likely doesn’t change the BoC’s view. “The Bank knew that the January labour market data was going to look bad when they updated their guidance in January to flag that interest rate hikes could come at any future meeting”.
  • RBC’s view from after the BoC last week was for liftoff to come in April and for three hikes in 2022 with chance of more if it hikes in March.
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