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RBC On Immigration Driving East Coast Growth

CANADA
  • RBC note that an aging population is driving a structural shift with low unemployment rates becoming the new norm in Canada, and the region that is aging fastest is Atlantic Canada.
  • By 2030, 27% of Atlantic Canada’s population will be 65 or older vs less than 22% elsewhere, with migration looking to fill the trend having already blown past previous projections.
  • If Ottawa’s aggressive new immigration targets are met, we could reasonably expect another 62k new international migrants to arrive in Atlantic Canada over three years, boosting the local population by 4% as interprovincial migration fades post-pandemic [potentially limiting the decline in the u/e rate as the labor force rises].
  • Heavy economic immigration will help invigorate the economy and require higher investment, but it will also hurt housing affordability in an area that currently remains relatively affordable at least compared to Ontario.
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