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RBC Still Look For 4% Terminal With Upside Risks

CANADA
  • RBC were in the minority looking for a 50bp hike to 3.75%, against market expectations and consensus geared towards another 75bp hike.
  • A deteriorating global backdrop, slowing domestic growth, early signs of a softening labour market, and faster-than-expected decline in headline inflation apparently outweighed a weakening CAD (ahead of a likely 75bp hike by the Fed next week), sticky core inflation and only modest improvement in inflation expectations.
  • The dovish pivot supports their view of 25bp hike to terminal 4% in Dec but risk is still skewed to upside as Macklem seemed to frame next meeting’s debate as 25 vs 50bp.
  • The BoC cut its 2023 growth forecast in half to 0.9% but is still well above RBC’s 0.2% projection.
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