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STIR
RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-5bps softer across meetings today. This comes after late 2024 meetings shunted around 20bps softer yesterday following the RBNZ policy decision.
- A cumulative 54bps of easing is priced by year-end from an expected OCR peak of 5.54%.
- Before the decision yesterday, the market had attached a 29% chance of a 25bp hike at yesterday’s meeting, with an anticipated terminal OCR of 5.65% (reflecting a 61% probability of a 25bp hike) by the May meeting. A cumulative 40bps of easing by year-end was factored into the pricing.
- It is also worth noting that in late December, the market had expected over 100bps of easing by year-end, stemming from an anticipated terminal OCR of 5.53%.
Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Expected Terminal & End-24 OCR (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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