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RBNZ Dated OIS Has A Hike At A 30% Chance

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Ahead of the RBNZ Policy Decision on Wednesday, Bloomberg consensus is nearly unanimous (19 of the 21 surveyed economists) in expecting a no-change result for the OCR. Only ANZ and TD are calling for a 25bp hike to 5.75%.

  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 1-3bps softer across meetings. A 32% chance of a 25bp hike is priced for this week’s meeting, with an expected terminal OCR of 5.65% (a 61% chance of a 25bp hike) for the May meeting.
  • A cumulative 40bps of easing is priced by year-end.


Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Pricing (%)



Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

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