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Ahead of the RBNZ Policy Decision on Wednesday, Bloomberg consensus is nearly unanimous (19 of the 21 surveyed economists) in expecting a no-change result for the OCR. Only ANZ and TD are calling for a 25bp hike to 5.75%.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 1-3bps softer across meetings. A 32% chance of a 25bp hike is priced for this week’s meeting, with an expected terminal OCR of 5.65% (a 61% chance of a 25bp hike) for the May meeting.
- A cumulative 40bps of easing is priced by year-end.
Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Pricing (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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