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RBNZ Dated OIS Prices Little Chance Of A Hike Tomorrow


Ahead of tomorrow’s policy meeting, RBNZ dated OIS is flat across meetings out to Apr’24 and 4-8bp firmer for meetings beyond.

  • Bloomberg consensus is unanimous in expecting the OCR to be kept at 5.50% this week. The market attaches an 9% chance of a 25bp hike.
  • Over the past six weeks, terminal OCR expectations have primarily traded within a range of 5.60-5.65%, aside from a brief uptick to 5.81% in early July.
  • This trading pattern aligns with the guidance issued by the RBNZ during its May Monetary Policy Statement. The RBNZ effectively conveyed its expectation that additional hikes in the OCR would not be necessary at that juncture, emphasising the importance of a phase characterised by attentive observation, concern, and patience, succinctly encapsulated as "watch, worry, and wait".

Figure 1: RBNZ-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Yesterday

Source: Bloomberg / MNI - Market News

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