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STIR: RBNZ Dated OIS Sharply Firmer After QSBO

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

It was a heavy session for the local market, with the move driven by the positive signals from the Q4 NZIER Business Opinion Survey. It had a significant influence on the OIS market, which tempered expectations for RBNZ easing. 

  • To sum up, the QSBO survey showed that a net 16% of businesses expect the economy to improve, vs 1% expecting it to get worse in Q3. This was the first positive outlook since Q2 2021. After seasonal adjustment, a net 9% of businesses expect the economy to improve, vs a revised 4% expecting deterioration in Q3.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 3-18bps firmer across meetings, with late 2025 leading.
  • 45bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 108bps by November 2025. The expected official rate for November has firmed 30bps since Friday’s close.

 

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It was a heavy session for the local market, with the move driven by the positive signals from the Q4 NZIER Business Opinion Survey. It had a significant influence on the OIS market, which tempered expectations for RBNZ easing. 

  • To sum up, the QSBO survey showed that a net 16% of businesses expect the economy to improve, vs 1% expecting it to get worse in Q3. This was the first positive outlook since Q2 2021. After seasonal adjustment, a net 9% of businesses expect the economy to improve, vs a revised 4% expecting deterioration in Q3.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 3-18bps firmer across meetings, with late 2025 leading.
  • 45bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 108bps by November 2025. The expected official rate for November has firmed 30bps since Friday’s close.

 

Keep reading...Show less