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MONTH-END EXTENSIONS: Re-FILE: Morgan Stanley has following US and European
month-end bond index advance estimates:
- Broad Euro Govt Bond Index extends +0.03 years, "in line with an average
August, but lower than the an average monthly extension (0.08 yrs). We see the
largest extension in the 1-5yr sector. On a country basis, Italy has the largest
extension of 0.09 yrs and its 1-5-year sector "will also see a notable extension
of 0.23 years, mainly due to a bond falling out of the index."
- US Tsys index: "We expect an extension of about 0.10 yrs, lower than an
average August (0.14 years) but marginally higher than an average month (0.085
years) given than August is a refunding month."
- US TIPS index: MS said it "should contract by 0.04 years, more or less in line
with the August average, but lower than an average monthly extension (0.06
- UK Gilts index however "contract by -0.016 years, lower than average;" avg
August extension is for 0.10 yrs and an average monthly extension is 0.08 year