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Re-Pricing Hawkish Policy Messaging

US EURODLR FUTURES

Lead quarterly EDU2 off early overnight low of 96.5725 currently 96.595 (-0.030). No LIBOR settlements this morning due to London bank holiday, resume Tuesday. For reference: Friday's 3M LIBOR set' climbed +0.02643 to new 14Y high: 3.06957%, +0.11186 total last wk.

  • Under pressure as rates re-price Fed/ECB hawkish messaging to contain inflation: Balance of Whites (EDZ2-EDM3) trade -0.055-0.095, Reds through Golds (EDU3-EDM7) -0.105-0.090, Reds-Greens underperforming.
  • Current inversion pricing: Mar'23/Jun'23 -0.025 vs. -0.060 last Friday; calendar spds: EDZ2/EDZ3 at -0.315 vs. -0.380 Fri, EDH3/EDH4 at -0.540. Inversion flattens out in Gold Sep'27/Dec'27 trading +0.010.
  • Really limited volumes as option traders pulled up stakes well ahead of Friday's event risk surrounding the Jackson Hole eco-summit. Thu's buy of 70,000 short Dec SOFR 95.50/96.00/96.50 put flys at 8.5 had the right idea: hedging higher rates for longer as short end underlying futures start pricing in more rate hikes through year end. Continued put spd buying and vol selling via strangles reported with today's event risk in the rear view mirror.

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