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Real GDI Sees Particularly Solid Upward Revision To Q1

US DATA
  • Real GDP increased 2.1% annualized in the third Q2 release, unchanged from the second release and a minor disappointment for consensus of 0.2%.
  • Revisions to Q1 were more notable: real GDP increased 2.2% in Q1 (+0.2pp) whilst real GDI saw a large push to +0.5% from an initial -1.8%.
  • Averaging GDP and GDI, the combination meant that 1H23 growth averaged 1.4% annualized compared to the initially estimated 0.7% annualized.
  • Further back, the comprehensive benchmark revisions generally led to stronger than expected growth through its recent history: In the 2017-2022 period, real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.2% (+0.1pp) and real GDI averaged 2.3% (+0.2pp).
  • Further back, real GDP averaged 2.4% through 2019-19 (+0.1pp).
  • See the chart below for changes to latest growth profiles.

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