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Real GDP Beats But Helped By Inventories

US DATA
  • Real GDP came in stronger than expected in the Q3 advance release at 4.88% annualized, somewhere between consensus at 4.5 and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 5.4, after the 2.06% annualized in Q2.
  • Personal consumption as expected though at 4.0% after 0.8% in Q2.
  • Broader contributions suggest the beat is driven by inventories: Final domestic sales +3.6pp after +2.0pp, change in inventories 1.3 after 0.00pp and net exports -0.08pp after +0.04pp. See charts.
  • Being the advance release, it doesn’t have an estimate for GDI.

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