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JAPAN DATA: Real Household Spending Higher Than Forecast, But Still Negative Y/Y

JAPAN DATA

Japan household spending was -0.4% y/y for Nov, still negative but above market expectations of a -0.9% dip. The prior Oct outcome was 1.3%y/y. In m/m terms spending rose 0.4%. All of these figures are in real terms. 

  • In nominal terms spending was up 3.0%y/y. Nominal income rose 4.1%, while real incomes were up 0.7%y/y. This was down from Oct's +1.1% y/y pace.
  • The positive surprise on real spending will be welcome by the authorities, but spending has remained largely negative in y/y terms for the past 2 years, see the chart below.
  • Today's data is unlikely to shift near term BoJ thinking. They have time to assess such trends and await early 2025 wages outcomes, with focus on positive real wages growth driving firmer household spending trends.  

Fig 1: Japan Real Household Spending Y/Y - Largely Negative In The Past 2yrs 
 

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Japan household spending was -0.4% y/y for Nov, still negative but above market expectations of a -0.9% dip. The prior Oct outcome was 1.3%y/y. In m/m terms spending rose 0.4%. All of these figures are in real terms. 

  • In nominal terms spending was up 3.0%y/y. Nominal income rose 4.1%, while real incomes were up 0.7%y/y. This was down from Oct's +1.1% y/y pace.
  • The positive surprise on real spending will be welcome by the authorities, but spending has remained largely negative in y/y terms for the past 2 years, see the chart below.
  • Today's data is unlikely to shift near term BoJ thinking. They have time to assess such trends and await early 2025 wages outcomes, with focus on positive real wages growth driving firmer household spending trends.  

Fig 1: Japan Real Household Spending Y/Y - Largely Negative In The Past 2yrs 
 

Keep reading...Show less