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Real Retail Sales Expected To Be Positive In Q4

NEW ZEALAND

Today real retail sales for Q4 print. Despite significant monetary tightening and cost-of-living pressures the series is expected to rise 0.2% q/q. The Q1 data will be impacted by recent natural disasters and the underlying trend will be difficult to ascertain. Thus the Q4 data will be an important gauge as to how the consumer was faring going into 2023.

  • There is quite a range of estimates with 6 of the 10 in the +0.1% to +0.4% range. At the low end one analyst is expecting -1.7%, with 4 expecting it to be negative, while the forecast high is 0.4% q/q.

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