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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FRANCE DATA
French nominal wages increased in Q4 2023 by +0.3% Q/Q (vs +0.5% prior) and +3.8% Y/Y (vs +4.2% prior). This was the fourth consecutive slowdown in the Y/Y rate, but nonetheless marks the first time in the current cycle that the yearly wage growth rate exceeded the average CPI inflation rate (3.7% Y/Y) of the respective quarter.
- Looking at the individual sectors, wage growth developments were fairly uniform, with industrial wages excl. construction and services wages rising +0.3% Q/Q (vs +0.5% prior, both), and construction wages at +0.2% Q/Q (vs +0.4% prior).
- The official Q4 growth rate largely mirrors the monthly data from the Indeed.com wage tracker, which printed at +3.6% Y/Y (+4.0% prior) in December 2023.
- Wage growth in France has been softer than in some Eurozone peers since the beginning of 2023, which has allowed French unit labour costs to remain relatively in-line with others despite poor productivity.
- That intersection between wage growth and productivity will be a key to unlocking ECB rate cuts, as stressed again by ECB's Lane and Schnabel in recent interviews and panel discussions.
- Additionally the nascent pickup in French real wage growth will be eyed as a constructive macro factor, with ECB President Lagarde noting in January's press conference: "one of the reasons why we see [Euro area] growth coming up and the recovery beginning in the course of 2024; because of rising wages while inflation comes down, which will free up some purchasing power, which hopefully will stimulate consumption."
MNI, Indeed.com, Ministry of Labour
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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