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Real Yields Drive Post-JOLTS Rally With Economy Seen Slowing

US TSYS
Real yields have driven the fall in overall Tsy yields since the JOLTS release: 5Y Tsy yields fell as much as 12.5bp. Real yields made up 9bp of that move, with breakevens 3.5bp.
  • Little wonder that assets that are very sensitive to real yields (eg gold) rallied sharply.
  • The intraday drop in breakevens is extending, but while real yields are stabilizing a little here, current levels would be the lowest close since mid-September 2021 (1.06%) - another reflection of the market's renewed conviction in economic slowdown and Fed cuts ahead.

5Y TIPS YieldSource: BBG, MNI

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