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Real Yields Tumble On Growth Concerns

US TSYS
  • Growth concerns are particularly evident in real yields today, with 10Y real yields sliding 15bps to +51bps although still some 25bps higher than prior to the US CPI surprise on Jun 10 that helped push the FOMC to a 75bp hike.
  • With nominal yields sliding 12bps, the inflation breakeven has nudged 3bps higher but this counts as a stabilisation after sliding over the past month to pre-taper levels at 2.38%.
  • Focus will be on upcoming mfg surveys, with the final US PMI (Eurozone largely unrevised this morning) and then more importantly ISM at 1000ET. Regional Fed surveys and yesterday’s miss in the MNI Chicago PMI both implying downside risk to ISM consensus for a fall from 56.1 to 54.5.

US 10y real yields (green), nominal yields (white) and breakeven (yellow), plus 5Y inflation swap (pink). Source: Bloomberg

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