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Real Yields Weigh On Risk Assets As Climb Above Jul FOMC Levels

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  • 10y real yields are currently +3.5bps at +49bps [white line below], the highest since Jul 22 after which real yields began to dip on softer growth expectations (the then July composite PMI showed a loss of momentum not seen outside of lockdowns since 2009) before further dipping after the Jul 27 FOMC and almost touching 0bp in early August before more hawkish Fedspeak.
  • This rebound in real yields has continued to play a role in weighing on risk assets, with the S&P E-mini dragging and the dollar index clearly firming.
  • Despite this climb in real yields, and coming ahead of Jackson Hole, inflation breakevens have also moved higher. The 10Y has nudged another 3bps higher for a now notable increase to 2.62% [pink link] having been at pre-taper levels of sub-2.30% in early July.

10Y real yields (white) vs S&P E-mini (green), DXY (yellow), plus 10Y breakeven (pink)Source: Bloomberg

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