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Recent Lows Hold Despite Capex Beat, 10yr Auction Tomorrow

JGBS

It has been a very steady start for JGB futures. With no cash US Tsy trading, the September JGB contract has largely moved sideways in the first part of Monday trade.

  • We did dip at the open, but couldn't test sub 144.50, which marked lows from Friday last week. We were last 144.60, -.12 versus settlement levels.
  • On the data front, Q2 Capex was stronger than forecast (ex software), which should see Q2 GDP revised higher (data out next Monday). These figures didn't impact JGB sentiment though.
  • Cash JGB yields have ticked higher, more so at the back end (30-40yr tenors up 2bps). The 10yr benchmark is just above 0.91%. It has been a similar backdrop for swap rates, albeit with slightly less gains in yield terms. The 10yr swap was last around 0.916%.
  • The data calendar just has monetary base figures for August tomorrow, which are unlikely to shift market sentiment. We do have a 10yr debt auction though.
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