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US TSYS: Reciprocal Tariff Headlines Buoy Tsys After Volatile Jobs Data

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries look to finish weaker Friday, near midday lows after a volatile data releases this morning: Treasuries gapped higher (TYH5 110-00 high, 4.38% yld) after lower than expected jobs gains for January, and small dip in unemployment rate -- but quickly reversed on higher up-revisions to prior jobs gains to 109-07.5 low at the time.
  • Nonfarm payrolls were softer than expected in January alone at 143k (cons 175k) but the latest two-month revision of +100k more than offset this (almost evenly split across Dec and Nov). As such, the 143k followed two even stronger than previously thought months with 307k in Dec and 261k in Nov.
  • The Mar'25 10Y contract ratcheted lower after 1Y forward inflation expectations in the UMichigan survey for February (to 4.3% from 3.3% in January), tapping 109-01 low in the first half. Brief risk-off support arrived after Pres Trump headlines suggested reciprocal tariff's in the near term (rather vague - Trump is expected to discuss details at a press conference next Tuesday.
  • Mixed sentiment prompted the USD index to oscillate around unchanged levels in the following hours, however, as Trump headlines began to cross, the USD remained on the front foot for the majority of the late Friday session.
  • Next week's focus is on Chairman Powell mon-pol testimony to Congress on Tuesday-Wednesday,CPI and PPI inflation measures Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
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  • Treasuries look to finish weaker Friday, near midday lows after a volatile data releases this morning: Treasuries gapped higher (TYH5 110-00 high, 4.38% yld) after lower than expected jobs gains for January, and small dip in unemployment rate -- but quickly reversed on higher up-revisions to prior jobs gains to 109-07.5 low at the time.
  • Nonfarm payrolls were softer than expected in January alone at 143k (cons 175k) but the latest two-month revision of +100k more than offset this (almost evenly split across Dec and Nov). As such, the 143k followed two even stronger than previously thought months with 307k in Dec and 261k in Nov.
  • The Mar'25 10Y contract ratcheted lower after 1Y forward inflation expectations in the UMichigan survey for February (to 4.3% from 3.3% in January), tapping 109-01 low in the first half. Brief risk-off support arrived after Pres Trump headlines suggested reciprocal tariff's in the near term (rather vague - Trump is expected to discuss details at a press conference next Tuesday.
  • Mixed sentiment prompted the USD index to oscillate around unchanged levels in the following hours, however, as Trump headlines began to cross, the USD remained on the front foot for the majority of the late Friday session.
  • Next week's focus is on Chairman Powell mon-pol testimony to Congress on Tuesday-Wednesday,CPI and PPI inflation measures Wednesday and Thursday respectively.