Trial now
US TSY FUTURES

Extending Sell-Off

US TSY OPTIONS

Huge 5Y Put Buyer

SHORT-STERLING OPTIONS

Call spread vs put

SOY TECHS

(X1) Consolidation Mode

US TSY FUTURES

10Y Call Unwind

Sign up now for free access to this content.

Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.

After dropping as low as 0.7331 in the European morning AUD/USD recovered to highs of 0.7391 before moving in a range into the close. The pair last trades down 4 pips at 0.7381.

  • The local COVID situation is expected to remain a headwind for AUD, the latest development is a delay until 2022 for a shipment of 51m doses of Novavax vaccine. CBA says: "we think the Covid‑19 situation in Australia will remain a firm headwind to AUD in the near term. The negative spread between Australia and US 10‑year bond yields is an additional headwind to AUD."
  • From a technical perspective the AUD/USD outlook is bearish. This follows the recent breach of a channel drawn from the Feb 25 high and despite the fact that price bounced back into the channel area, the move lower marks an important short-term technical break. Scope is for weakness towards 0.7235 next, a 1.236 projection of the Feb 25 -Apr 1 - May 10 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 0.7429, Jul 19 high.
  • There is a lack of domestic risk events slated on Tuesday. Late in the Sydney evening we will see RBA Deputy Governor Debelle speak on "Outcomes of the 3-year review of the FX Global Code" at the FX Markets U.S. Conference 2021, and participants will also digest weekly consumer confidence data.