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FOREX: Recovery for Equities Weighs on Greenback, Cross/JPY Extends Bounce

FOREX
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  • The USD was under pressure at the NY/Asia Pac cross over, as headlines crossed from Bloomberg that Trump economic advisers were considering/studying a gradual tariff hike approach. The more optimistic price action for equities has provided weakness for both the greenback and the Japanese Yen, with most recent reports of a potential Israel/Hamas ceasefire assisting this sentiment.
  • As such, cross/JPY is extending its recovery, with the likes of EURJPY and AUDJPY rising half a percent on Tuesday to turn positive on the week despite Monday’s sharp initial selloff.
  • The recent move down in EURJPY appears technically corrective, however the cross did breach support at 160.91, the Jan 2 low. The next support to watch is 159.51, 61.8% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. A reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective cycle and refocus attention on 164.90, the Dec 30 high. First resistance is at 162.43, the 20-day EMA.
  • NZD outperformance stands out today, and appears to be driven by the positive signals from the Q4 NZIER Business Opinion Survey and its influence on OIS pricing, which is tempering expectations for RBNZ easing. To sum up, the survey showed that a net 16% of businesses expect the economy to improve, vs 1% expecting it to get worse in Q3.
  • NZDUSD has risen back above 0.5600 and will look to the 20-day EMA as initial resistance, intersecting today at 0.5641. NZDJPY is one of the best performing crosses, currently up 0.80% on the session.
  • GBP once again underperforms, with cable down 0.15% on the day and notably 70 pips off the overnight 1.2250 highs. EURGBP is currently testing the Monday highs of 0.8424 having recently undermined the recent bearish theme, suggesting scope for a stronger short-term recovery. The cross will now target 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, and 0.8494, the Aug 26 ’24 high.
  • US PPI is the focus on the Tuesday economic calendar before UK and US CPI cross Wednesday. Fed speakers include Schmid and Williams.
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  • The USD was under pressure at the NY/Asia Pac cross over, as headlines crossed from Bloomberg that Trump economic advisers were considering/studying a gradual tariff hike approach. The more optimistic price action for equities has provided weakness for both the greenback and the Japanese Yen, with most recent reports of a potential Israel/Hamas ceasefire assisting this sentiment.
  • As such, cross/JPY is extending its recovery, with the likes of EURJPY and AUDJPY rising half a percent on Tuesday to turn positive on the week despite Monday’s sharp initial selloff.
  • The recent move down in EURJPY appears technically corrective, however the cross did breach support at 160.91, the Jan 2 low. The next support to watch is 159.51, 61.8% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. A reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective cycle and refocus attention on 164.90, the Dec 30 high. First resistance is at 162.43, the 20-day EMA.
  • NZD outperformance stands out today, and appears to be driven by the positive signals from the Q4 NZIER Business Opinion Survey and its influence on OIS pricing, which is tempering expectations for RBNZ easing. To sum up, the survey showed that a net 16% of businesses expect the economy to improve, vs 1% expecting it to get worse in Q3.
  • NZDUSD has risen back above 0.5600 and will look to the 20-day EMA as initial resistance, intersecting today at 0.5641. NZDJPY is one of the best performing crosses, currently up 0.80% on the session.
  • GBP once again underperforms, with cable down 0.15% on the day and notably 70 pips off the overnight 1.2250 highs. EURGBP is currently testing the Monday highs of 0.8424 having recently undermined the recent bearish theme, suggesting scope for a stronger short-term recovery. The cross will now target 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, and 0.8494, the Aug 26 ’24 high.
  • US PPI is the focus on the Tuesday economic calendar before UK and US CPI cross Wednesday. Fed speakers include Schmid and Williams.