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REFINING: Near Term European Gasoline Crack Support from Lower Supply: EA

REFINING
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EBOB gasoline cracks are expected to see some near term support due to strong European refinery maintenance in Autumn, according to Energy Aspects cited by Bloomberg.

  • The northwest Europe gasoline crack forecast against Dated Brent is $13.90/bbl in Q3, $6.70 in Q4 and $7.10 in Q1 2025.
  • European turnarounds are estimated at 1.06mb/d in September, 1.17mb/d in October and 401kb/d in November.
  • Run cuts across Europe and Asia are assumed at 900kb/d in Q4 although the timing and extent depends on refining hedging earlier this year. European refinery run cuts are estimated to reach 300kb/d in September and 700kb/d in Q4 2024.
  • European gasoline exports are expected to fall to 190kb/d in Q4 due to lower regional supply and subdued West Africa and Middle East demand.
  • In Q1 2025, the FCC ramp up at Nigeria’s Dangote refinery could pressure EBOB cracks and lead to some capacity reduction at European refiners.
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EBOB gasoline cracks are expected to see some near term support due to strong European refinery maintenance in Autumn, according to Energy Aspects cited by Bloomberg.

  • The northwest Europe gasoline crack forecast against Dated Brent is $13.90/bbl in Q3, $6.70 in Q4 and $7.10 in Q1 2025.
  • European turnarounds are estimated at 1.06mb/d in September, 1.17mb/d in October and 401kb/d in November.
  • Run cuts across Europe and Asia are assumed at 900kb/d in Q4 although the timing and extent depends on refining hedging earlier this year. European refinery run cuts are estimated to reach 300kb/d in September and 700kb/d in Q4 2024.
  • European gasoline exports are expected to fall to 190kb/d in Q4 due to lower regional supply and subdued West Africa and Middle East demand.
  • In Q1 2025, the FCC ramp up at Nigeria’s Dangote refinery could pressure EBOB cracks and lead to some capacity reduction at European refiners.