/REFUNDING: TD's Priya Misra,........>

US TSYS/SUPPLY: /REFUNDING: TD's Priya Misra, Gennadiy Goldberg and Cheng Chen

previewed next Wednesday's 8:30 am ET US Tsy November Refunding announcement and

related matters, and eyed a "supply surge." 

- They expected Treasury "to fund an estimated $250bn of Fed portfolio runoff in

2018 by increasing supply across the curve, but to concentrate issue size

increases in the sub-5yr sector. We expect FRN issue sizes to increase, but look

for TIPS to remain unchanged." 

- They also looked for "a $1bn increase in the 3yr auction size at November

refunding meeting, with no increases to the 10yr and 30yr auction sizes just

yet. While we see a risk of $1bn increases to 10yr and 30yr sizes, we expect any

such increase to occur later as sub-5yr auction sizes are increased first."