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UniCredit: Refunding this week to see "constructive" investor sentiment

ITALY
  • UniCredit notes that "The results of the Italian election on Sunday were largely in line with what opinion polls suggested before the blackout period... In terms of seats in parliament, the right-wing coalition was able to secure an absolute majority of seats in both houses of Italy’s parliament. The parliamentary majority is not as large as indicated by the polls due to a slightly worse performance on a proportional basis (the right-wing coalition won 44% of the popular vote, as opposed to 46% suggested by the polls). On the other hand, their candidates won most of the first-past-the-post, single districts, with the M5S also able to conquer a few districts in the south."
  • "The next important official event will be when the new parliament officially convenes on 13 October. After that, there will be the elections of the president of the lower and upper houses, which we expect to be concluded by about the middle of October. The process of forming a government will start with President Mattarella beginning a round of consultations, probably just after 20 October. Mr. Mattarella will indicate the name of a possible prime minister to be given the mandate to form a new government, supported by a right-wing coalition, which is likely to come into office at the beginning of November."
  • "In the meantime, Prime Minister Mario Draghi will remain in office, with one of his key commitments being to start preparing the 2023 draft budgetary plan."
  • "Italian refunding, to be held this week, will be a first test of investor demand in this new political environment. We expect investor sentiment to be constructive."
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