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Despite expectations of GDP growth exceeding 6.5% y/y and CPI inflation registering at 2.5% in 2021, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard used an interview with MNI published late Monday to push back against talk from investors and former policymakers about a near-term tightening of monetary policy, saying he was looking for a "more definitive end to the pandemic" before discussing a policy shift.
Unfazed by April's 4.2% year-on-year CPI print, Bullard is instead monitoring market measures like the spread between nominal Treasuries and inflation-backed bonds. The rise in TIPS-based inflation break-evens to around 2.7% on a CPI basis "suggests the committee will be able to move inflation somewhat above target for some time which is what the new framework is aiming for," Bullard told MNI.