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Regional Fed Banks CPI Metrics Soften To Multi-Year Lows In May

US DATA

The Atlanta and Cleveland Fed's inflation metrics softened in May, in line with the overall CPI report. They suggest however that even looking beyond some individual categories that dragged down the core reading, there was a broadening of disinflationary pressures in May:

  • The Cleveland's Fed estimated median CPI fell to 0.25% M/M in May from 0.35% in the prior 2 months - a 10-month low. The Y/Y reading fell to 4.3%, a 28-month low.
  • Cleveland's Trimmed Mean (16%) measure dropped to 0.13% M/M from 0.27% prior, lowest since January 2021, with the Y/Y reading dipping to 3.4% from 3.5% - lowest since August 2021.
  • The Atlanta Fed's Sticky CPI was 4.3% Y/Y in May, a 28-month low, after 4.4% in May. Sticky CPI ex-shelter was negative M/M for the first time since September 2020 (-0.01% vs +0.35% prior), with the 6M annualized rate dipping to a 5-month low (2.9%, vs 3.9% prior).
  • Sticky Core ex-shelter fell M/M (-0.07%) but Y/Y continues to hover around the 3% area after going as low as 2.7% in 2023.

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