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Reliability Of U.Mich Preliminary Reports

  • Ahead of the U.Mich survey for August (1000ET), note that the past two preliminary surveys have overestimated the eventual move in the 5-10Y inflation expectations component in both directions - see below.
  • Consensus has it falling a tenth to 2.8% but a larger move in either direction could be treated more sceptically this time around. That hasn’t really been the case for the sentiment index though, which has given a better guide for the final print.

5-10Y inflation measure

May: 3.0%

June: 3.3% prelim, 3.1% final

July: 2.8% prelim, 2.9% final

Aug cons. 2.8%

Consumer Sentiment

May: 58.4

June: 50.2 prelim, 50.0 final

July: 51.1 prelim, 51.5 final

Aug cons. 52.5

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