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Relief Rally For Local Assets As DI Curve Shifts Lower, BRL Surges

BRAZIL
  • The Brazilian real experienced a strong surge higher as USDBRL sold off roughly 3% from earlier highs close to 5.70. Closing at 5.5533, we are in close proximity to initial support at 5.5369, the Oct 27 low. Key trend support has been defined at 5.4342, Oct 15 low.
  • The DI curve also enjoyed a strong relief rally, with contracts expiring in Jan '28 falling 66bps to 11.98%.
  • Brazil's Lower House has approved the main text of a constitutional amendment that would help fund President Jair Bolsonaro's signature social program, providing cash handouts of 400 reais ($72) to poor families in the run-up to next year's elections. (BBG)
    • The bill received 312 votes in favor and 144 against in the first round of voting early Thursday. Because the bill changes the constitution, it needs to go through a second vote in the Lower House before being voted on over two rounds in the Senate.
    • Leaders of the House will meet this morning to decide if the next vote will happen today or Nov. 9.
  • Up today:
    • 1200GMT/0800ET: Sept. Industrial Production YoY, est. -4.0%, prior -0.7%
    • 1200GMT/0800ET: Sept. Industrial Production MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -0.7%
    • 1300GMT/0900ET: Oct. Markit Brazil PMI Services, prior 54.6
    • 1300GMT/0900ET: Oct. Markit Brazil PMI Composite, prior 54.7
    • *BRAZIL TO SELL 450,000 LTN, 100,000 NTN-F, UP TO 1,5M LFT BONDS (BBG)
    • Brazil hosts its long-awaited spectrum auction for 5G technology, which is set to be the largest ever made in the country.

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