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Reluctance To Price In Much Higher Rates Ahead Of BoC

CANADA
  • BAX futures have reversed the earlier move lower to leave them little changed from Friday’s close, with yields up 1-2bps through to end-2023, in stark contrast to Eurodollars yields cranking higher (EDZ2 +11.5bps, EDZ3 +13.5bps).
  • After an already sizeable re-pricing of higher rates through 2023, there is a reluctance to increase much further ahead of tomorrow’s BoC decision with question marks over potential rate guidance ahead once it will presumably be in restrictive territory.
  • As it is, BAX yields sit at a level crudely consistent with a terminal policy rate of circa 3.75% in the Dec’22, seen largely holding there through 1H23 with the first full 25bp cut not until closer to mid-2024.

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